JERUSALEM, Israel – As the polls closed on yet another election day in Israel, millions of Israelis eagerly waited to see if, after five rounds of voting in less than four years, they would finally be able to pick a clear winner and produce a stable government to successfully run the country.
Early exit polls predicted that former prime minister and current opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu could very well be the winner this time around. His bloc of right-wing religious parties was to reach 62 seats, the number of mandates needed to form a majority in the Knesset, Israel’s 120-seat parliament.
Yesh Atid, the party of Netanyahu’s main rival, Acting Prime Minister Yair Lapid, looked set to pick up just 24 seats, according to polls. The assortment of parties willing to support him in forming an anti-Netanyahu government would only have reached 55 seats. Two key parties appeared not to cross the electoral threshold.
The end result of what could be the country’s most decisive elections – ending an endless round of elections – will not be known for at least the next few hours and perhaps the next few days or even weeks if the votes are contested. Furthermore, if any of the parties poised on the electoral threshold really break through, the final numbers could change radically.
JERUSALEM, ISRAEL – NOVEMBER 01: Former Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara Netanyahu voted in the Israeli general election on November 1, 2022 in UNSpecified, Israel. Israelis return to the polls on November 1 for the fifth general election in four years to vote for a new Knesset, the 120-seat parliament. (Photo by Amir Levy / Getty Images)
((Photo by Amir Levy / Getty Images))
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“Netanyahu will be the next prime minister,” Bushinsky, a political commentator and former Netanyahu chief of staff, told Fox News Digital after the exit polls were posted on local broadcasts.
“For a long time it wasn’t clear and we went from election to election, but while the last government was creative, it was unstable,” he said, adding that the results – if accurate – show that the public missed that. of stability and was not happy that an Arab party was included in the composition of the outgoing government.
Although, he warned, “if the Arab parties cross the threshold, the whole political map could change.”
Assaf Shapira, director of the political reform program at the Israel Democracy Institute also told Fox News Digital that “we will have to wait for the final results to see if this is accurate.”
“All exit polls predict between 61-62 seats for the pro-Netanyahu political bloc, which was quite expected,” he said, adding however that previous exit polls in 2021 also gave Netanyahu between 61-62 seats, but neither they missed a small Arab party that ended up becoming a deciding factor that allowed the other factions to unite and oust Netanyahu from power.
“Exit polls may not know how to treat the Arab public and understand the trends in that sector less,” he said.
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According to polls that preceded Tuesday’s vote, the Arab public, which represents around 20 percent of the Israeli population, should have stayed away from polling stations and it is still unclear whether this has happened. Israel’s Central Electoral Committee said overall voter turnout was the highest since the 1999 election, a vote that saw Netanyahu, in his first round as prime minister, defeated by former prime minister Ehud Barak.
While the Israeli parliamentary system means that no single political party can win an outright election, the largest party is usually the one that has the first chance to try to form a coalition with other factions. It’s a complicated puzzle of smaller parties that typically align themselves with similar ideologies. mostly related to the conflict with the Palestinians.
FILE – Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid attends a cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem on Sunday 18 October. 23, 2022. Israel holds its fifth national election in less than four years and once again the race is shaping up to be a referendum on former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s suitability for government. (Abir Sultan / Pool photo via AP, File)
((Abir Sultan / Pool photo via AP, File))
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In the past four years of political limbo, however, alliances have also been forged on whether Netanyahu, who became the country’s longest-serving prime minister in July 2019, should lead the country.
Netanyahu is currently involved in a high-profile criminal trial on charges of fraud, corruption and breach of trust. It is these allegations, which include activities involving lavish gifts and high-risk deals with millionaires and national infrastructure companies, that forced the former prime minister to hold elections for the first time in December. 2018
By breaking up his government four years ago, Netanyahu hoped for a decisive election result that would bolster his support and prove that, despite the criminal investigation, he was still loved by a loyal audience. After the April 2019 election, however, he was unable to put together a government, with key allies and political partners unwilling to overlook his legal woes. Netanyahu was forced to call an unprecedented second election five months later.
The September 2019 vote also produced no clear winner and no clear path for Netanyahu – or any other political leader – to establish a government and the country was forced to hold a third election in March 2020, which produced a coalition of short lived with current Defense Minister Benny Gantz.
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That shaky alliance lasted less than a year before a fourth election was held in March 2021, with Netanyahu’s rivals, including for the first time ever an Arab-Israeli political party, ultimately ousting him from power. Naftali Bennett, a former ally of Netanyahu, became prime minister, with Lapid, who initially served as alternate prime minister. But internal disagreements – mainly over fundamental ideological differences between the eight factions – led to the fall of that government in June. Tuesday’s vote seems to make it unlikely that such an alliance will reappear this time around.
