Will Twitter be the subsequent MySpace?

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed beneath belong solely to the creator.

Ever since billionaire Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter in October, a way of impending doom has hung over the social media platform and its customers.

From issuing an ultimatum to his (remaining) staff to launching a paid verification function that backfired, Musk is sending an already dying social media platform to its grave.

TwitterBlue
Twitter Blue, the social media platform’s paid verification function / Picture credit score: Mashable

Earlier than Musk’s takeover of Twitter, the social media platform had $596.50 million in internet debt final 12 months, based on the Wall Road Journal, and was struggling to draw new customers and develop its income. .

The corporate has not made a revenue for eight of the previous 10 years.

Submit-acquisition, whereas it is harder to find out Twitter’s monetary well being as Musk privatized the social media firm, analysts have pieced collectively an evaluation from the corporate’s newest regulatory filings and Musks’ public statements to seek out that internet debt amassed by Twitter has soared to a whopping sum of US$13 billion.

Moreover, the corporate, which generates greater than 90% of its income from promoting, is seeing the flight of massive advertisers like WPP’s Group M and Omnicom and has halted spending on the social media platform as there’s rising concern concerning the Twitter future enterprise mannequin.

There is not any denying that the social media platform was on its option to its grave – its personal monetary efficiency is proof of that – and Musk simply hastened its demise by way of his reckless strikes and hasty selections.

Customers are flying to the social media platform

Massive advertisers apart, Twitter customers are additionally fleeing the platform.

The Bot Sentinel platform, which tracks inauthentic conduct on Twitter, believes that about 877,000 accounts had been deactivated and one other 497,000 suspended between Musk’s takeover of Twitter in late October and the top of October, based on MIT Know-how Evaluate. November 1, which is greater than double the typical variety of accounts.

Celebrities reminiscent of Gigi Hadid and Shonda Rhimes have additionally retired from Twitter, citing that the acquisition of Musk has solely created a “cesspool of hate and bigotry,” which is true contemplating Twitter has seen an almost 500% enhance use of racial slurs inside 12 hours of buying Musk.

Gigi Hadid's Twitter
Gigi Hadid publicizes deactivation of Twitter by way of Instagram Story / Picture Credit score: PopBase@Twitter
shonda rhymes on twitter
Shonda Rhimes’ newest tweet on Twitter / Picture Credit score: Screengrab by Vulcan Submit

However what’s fascinating is that customers who left Twitter did not simply give up social media, they turned to different platforms, which have seen large will increase of their person base for the reason that Musk takeover.

Various Twitter platforms are seeing a rise in customers

In accordance with Fox Enterprise, a lot of the smaller platforms which have seen a rise in customers share widespread parts, particularly the absence of advertisements and algorithms.

One such platform is Hive Social, which has garnered over two million customers since Musk’s takeover of Twitter. The skyrocketing new customers even resulted within the platform crashing a few occasions.

Hive Social combines ideas from Instagram, Twitter and MySpace, together with picture and video posts, standing updates, an choice to repost content material, and even permits customers to have a customized music part on their profiles.

the social hive
Hive Social / Picture Credit score: Screengrab by Vulcan Submit

Whereas the app remains to be removed from excellent and has its justifiable share of bugs, Hive Social has additionally managed to ramp up its funding, with over 800 individuals investing over $300,000 into the app by way of crowdfunding web site WeFunder.

The extra funding Hive Social receives will go towards increasing accessibility and sending weekly growth updates to the app to accommodate person suggestions, based on the app’s 24-year-old CEO Raluca Pop.

Along with Hive Social, the decentralized social media platform Mastodon can be trending amongst former Twitter customers and companies.

mastodon
Mastodon interface / Picture credit score: Mastodon

In accordance with SensorTower, the platform noticed its downloads develop 657% within the 12 days following Musk’s possession of Twitter.

Mastodon has been round since 2016 and is powered by a community of impartial servers world wide. The platform is much like Twitter in that they’re each microblogging platforms: a person can publish posts that go right into a central feed, which will be “flagged” (preferred), “boosted” (retweeted), and shared.

Along with common customers, corporations and tech giants reminiscent of Volkswagen AG and Google have additionally created their official accounts on Mastodon.

Along with the explosion in downloads of those new platforms, present social media platforms like Tumblr have additionally seen an adoption enhance of 96% within the US and 77% worldwide.

Tumblr Mastodon
Improve in Mastodon and Tumblr downloads since Musk’s acquisition of Twitter/ Picture Credit score: SensorTower

With all these new platforms gaining momentum, how precisely can Musk’s Twitter survive?

Musk’s MySpace second

twitter elon moss
Picture Credit score: Elon Musk @Twitter

I can draw parallels between the demise of one of many greatest social media websites, MySpace and Twitter.

MySpace fell out of favor because the platform fell into unhealthy palms within the face of excellent opponents like Fb – sound acquainted?

Twitter already lags behind different social media giants, ranked fifteenth in variety of customers, and has been overtaken by new entrants like TikTok. Musk’s hostile administration model has solely dug a deeper gap for the platform.

Working Twitter like an authoritarian regime, Musk lower the social media platform’s workforce by 7,500 by serving to in a determined try to cut back Twitter’s prices.

Twitter employees Elon Musk
Twitter earlier than and after the Musk takeover / Picture credit score: Lauren Chen

Whereas the Twitter firing may assist the corporate save greater than $860 million yearly, about 15 p.c of Twitter’s $5.57 billion in prices and bills final 12 months, this transfer may additionally show lethal for the social media platform, the corporate’s most crucial Engineers, builders and distributors have left Twitter.

The mixture of those components and the rise of social media platforms that rival Twitter can solely imply one factor: the platform is heading for its downfall.

Is chapter the one approach out?

failure
Picture credit score: Excessive Courtroom Enforcement Group

On Nov. 10, Musk warned of a possible bust in a gathering with Twitter staffers, based on individuals accustomed to the matter. This comes on the heels of an inside memo to staff through which Musk warned of “horrible financial challenges going through the corporate”.

Whereas it is simple that Twitter is going through a barrage of challenges and is most certainly heading for a downfall, analysts nonetheless consider Musk could also be in search of different choices earlier than resorting to chapter, based on the Wall Road Journal.

If Musk finally ends up submitting for chapter, his $27 billion funding will most certainly be worn out as shareholders would be the final to receives a commission throughout a company restructuring.

As a substitute of shedding his funding, Musk should buy Twitter’s debt again from lenders at a steep low cost to cut back the corporate’s debt load and curiosity prices, in addition to his valuation, the previous credit score analyst and vendor founder Enersection LLC information scientist Jeffrey Davies advised Wall Road Journal.

This may find yourself being useful to the enterprise in the long term.

Past that, based on finance professor David Kass, Twitter may additionally change a few of its debt with fairness, and if profitable, Twitter can generate constructive free money circulate in two to 3 years.

All of it will depend on Musk’s plan of action. If the fitting steps are taken on the proper time, maybe Twitter will be saved.

Featured Picture Credit score: Getty Photographs