How Russia’s Black Sea drone downing compares with the worst moments of its confrontation with the US


On Tuesday, a Russian Su-27 fighter pressured down a US MQ-9 drone over the Black Sea.

High US officers shortly put the finger of blame on Russia: Air Drive Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of US Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa, mentioned “unsafe and unprofessional” flying by the Russian plane almost brought about the Su-27 and the Reaper to crash. US European Command mentioned one of many two Russian jets shadowing the Reaper deliberately flew in entrance of the drone and dumped gasoline on it a number of instances.

The US State Division summoned Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov over the incident. And in feedback the next day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that relations between Russia and the US had hit their “lowest level.”

However the lowest level since when? Since Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea? Because the Kremlin’s meddling within the 2016 US presidential election? Or maybe since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine final yr? With the US and Russia routinely scraping backside on the subject of bilateral relations, maybe we want new superlatives to explain how unhealthy issues are.

There’s little denying that the midair encounter – Russia denies there was a collision – has exacerbated tensions between Moscow and Washington. However a little bit of historic perspective serves as a reminder that confrontation between the 2 nuclear-armed nations will be a lot sharper.

Take, as an illustration, an often-overlooked chapter of the conflict in Syria. Again in February 2018, a US contingent on the bottom in jap Syria clashed with a pressure advancing on their base that included members of the Russian non-public army firm Wagner. US troops referred to as in air strikes and artillery on the opposing pressure, inflicting dozens of casualties on the Wagner mercenaries and their Syrian allies.

The battle was the deadliest encounter between US forces and Russian fighters because the finish of the Chilly Struggle, but it surely didn’t result in escalation: The Russian authorities on the time denied the existence of the mercenary group (Wagner right now fairly publicly bears the brunt of combating for Russia across the Ukrainian metropolis of Bakhmut). However again in 2018, reporting in regards to the battle additionally highlighted the existence of a longstanding “deconfliction line” between the US and Russian militaries meant to reduce the danger of inadvertent escalation by preserving channels of communication open about army actions and operations.

Such channels remained open even after Russia’s full-invasion of Ukraine final yr. Final March, the Pentagon acknowledged it had a deconfliction line open to keep away from army miscalculations close to Ukraine.

It’s not clear whether or not routine US drone flights over the Black Sea area rise to the extent of deconfliction: Nationwide Safety Council Communications Coordinator John Kirby mentioned American belongings “have been flying constantly over that airspace for a yr,” he mentioned, arguing there was no purpose to activate deconfliction strains earlier than flying over the Black Sea. And in keeping with Kremlin spokesman Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin was briefed on the downing of the drone, however there have been no highest stage contacts between Moscow and Washington over the matter.

Whereas strains of communication could also be open, the US-Russia confrontation is actually at ranges not seen because the most harmful moments of the Chilly Struggle.

“We have now not confronted the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile disaster,” President Joe Biden advised a gaggle of Democrats final yr in response to nuclear saber rattling by Putin. “I don’t assume there’s any such factor as the flexibility to simply use a tactical nuclear weapon and never find yourself with Armageddon.”

However although the Chilly Struggle noticed the Cuban missile disaster and several other nuclear shut calls, it’s much less remembered right now that the Chilly Struggle escalated right into a scorching one between US and Soviet forces at a number of factors in the course of the decades-long confrontation.

Throughout the Korean Struggle, as an illustration, US fighter pilots engaged in aerial fight towards Soviet MiGs. These dogfights, nonetheless, remained shrouded in secrecy, with information shortly categorised and members sworn to secrecy. One of many causes? Fears that making such incidents public may improve tensions between the 2 superpowers.

The identical was additionally true for manned surveillance flights that the US carried out round — and typically over — Soviet territory. The downing of the U-2 spy airplane piloted by Francis Gary Powers in 1960 is essentially the most well-known case, creating main embarrassment for the US and stirring worldwide media consideration. However most of these packages remained categorised, and out of the information, for many years.

One of many incidents that was solely declassified a long time later was the downing of Flight 60528, a US C-130 on a spy mission that was shot down over Soviet Armenia, killing its crew of 17. The US authorities has acknowledged that between 1945 and 1977, over 40 US reconnaissance plane have been shot down on such missions.

So why the sound and fury over the downing of the Reaper? For one half, there’s an ongoing info conflict across the conflict raging in Ukraine. The Russians, as an illustration, have capitalized on the incident: In a little bit of professional trolling, Russian Safety Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev mentioned Russia would attempt to recuperate the wreckage of the MQ-9 in an effort to research it (two US officers advised CNN that delicate software program on the unmanned plane was wiped earlier than it crashed within the Black Sea).

Andrew Weiss, a Russia professional and Vice President for Research & James Household Chair on the Carnegie Endowment, steered in a thread on Twitter that the downing of the drone had one other use for the Russians, permitting Moscow to take care of a reputable bluff about their willingness to escalate in a confrontation with the West.

“Russian irritation about US and NATO actions in/across the Black Sea is nothing new,” he wrote. “Absolutely, individuals within the Kremlin are good sufficient to know that US received’t again away from conducting surveillance missions just like the drone flight {that a} Russian jet crashed into right now.”

Added Weiss: “For greater than a yr, the Kremlin has routinely threatened to intrude with shipments of Western weapons to Ukraine but has completed nothing to again that up. For all of the countless discuss attainable escalation dangers from a Russian assault, the truth is that deterrence has held. … Messing [with] a drone flight was a manner for Moscow to attempt to rebuild its misplaced credibility – with out threatening any US/NATO lives.”

However that’s the double edged sword of deterrence. Messing with a drone flight is one factor, but when Moscow acts in a manner that does (publicly) threaten lives, then we could find yourself speaking a couple of totally different situation.