Valley tips, best bets, Moir Stakes meeting preview

News Corp analyst Brad Waters takes a first look at Friday night’s Group 1 Moir Stakes meeting at The Valley.

BEST BET

ASFOORA (Race 5, No. 8)
Asfoora was the first dominant winner in Sandown earlier this month. She is ranked in the group and should be hard to beat again.

VALUE BET

SPARK OF HOPE (Race 8, No. 8)
Glint Of Hope finished well when not far behind in Flemington’s first place. It will enjoy 1600 meters and it will not be far.

PRELIMINARY SCENARIO

1, 2, 10, 11/2, 4, 5, 8/1, 3, 7, 15/3, 4, 5, 9

$ 100 flexible for 39.06%.

LARGE 6

1, 3, 7, 15/3, 4, 5, 9/5, 8/4, 8, 9/3, 4, 9, 12/1, 2, 6, 8

$ 100 flexible for 6.51 percent

SQUARE

Race 6: 5, 8

Race 7: 4, 8, 9

Race 8: 3, 4, 9, 12

Race 9: 1, 2, 6, 8

$ 100 flexible for 104.16%.

RACE 1: ASPECT KITCHENS PLATE (1200m)

Soft track scheduled for Friday night’s Moir Stakes meeting. EL PADRINO (1) pushed forward and fought well in the foreground at Listed level and will only be in better shape. OCEANS ABOVE (12) scored easily in his last run and will have had time to develop. KAYGEEBEE (11) has made its debut and could live up to that. The KEEPER (10) appreciated the drop in first class and will be in much better shape for that outing.

RECOMMENDED BET: El Padrino to win.

MARKET MOVER SHEET: Shalaman $ 4.20 – $ 3.80

RACE 2: GROUP 3 SCARBOROUGH PEAKS (1200m)

BOUND FOR HOME (5) ran hard to score a surprise win at Caulfield’s first place and last time he ran a solid second to Flemington’s second place. I was expecting another great performance at The Valley. PRAIRIE FLOWER (8) is in shape for two promising efforts this time and could be up to par. QUEEN OF THE BALL (2) comes out of a good form match in Sydney and should be around the mark. TROACH (4) was a good winner at The Valley last time around and worth a second thought.

RECOMMENDED BET: Chained to win at home.

MARKET MOVER SHEET: English Riviera $ 4.80 – $ 3.70.

RACE 3: MSC SIGNS HANDICAP (1200m)

SNAPPER (7) is a specialist at The Valley and has exceptional starting speed. He was beaten by less than three lengths at Group 1 level here last time and should be hard to take down. CLEMENCEAU (3) will be the hardest to beat after a very good first race at Rosehill last time. SHARP RESPONSE (15) competes well in first place and consistently competes last time, including a prize at Bendigo. NOT TO BE MIST (1) is fine fresh and should be prominent despite the complicated gate.

RECOMMENDED BET: Snapper to win.

MARKET MOVER SHEET: Clemenceau $ 2.8- $ 2.25.

RACE 4: GROUP 2 STAKES (1600m)

Difficult race but MURAMASA (9) could live up to this thanks to his impressive debut victory in Sale last time. HE’S HEAVEN (5) pushed forward and fought well when he’s not far behind promising Berkeley Square in Flemington. He will go on again and it will be difficult to break down. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (3) ran well to get up a little here last time and will be better for that outing. TIJUANA (4) ran hard behind Berkeley Square and looks suitable for 1600m.

RECOMMENDED BET: Muramasa in every way.

MARKET MOVER SHEET: Tijuana $ 3.20 – $ 2.80

RACE 5: 55 SECOND CHALLENGE MISSING 1 (955m)

ASFOORA (8) is a smart mare on the way to tougher races and should be hard to beat with the fitness gained from her impressive first win at Sandown. GALENUS (5) chased Galenus home when he took back to Sandown first place and is a second winner. YULONG COMMAND (4) has yet to win first place but has an outstanding record around The Valley and has jumped well at Flemington leading to this. ROSE QUARTZ (7) is the first undefeated and has done enough in her trials and leaps to indicate that she is likely to perform forward.

RECOMMENDED BET: Asfora to win.

MARKET MOVER SHEET: Asphora $ 2.90 – $ 2.40.

RACE 6: GROUP 3 JRC CUP (2040m)

Complicated edition of the JRA Cup, made even more difficult by the scratch of Anticonformist. DESERT ICON (8) had a good run before scoring on this course last time and drops to 54kg despite winning third place well. GREAT HOUSE (4) ran well behind Makram’s first runner and has an excellent runner up record as he competes well on this trip. AURORA’S SYMPHONY (7) did her best job when she got back and placed both times in The Valley. MAKRAM (7) finished hard to score second, but he should be there if he runs The Valley.

RECOMMENDED BET: Desert icon to win.

MARKET MOVER SHEET: Macrame $ 4.60 – $ 4.

RACE 7: ROUND 1 MOIR PEAKS (1000m)

The sprinters will compete for $ 1 million in the Moir Stakes in which ROTHFIRE (3) looks fit after his McEwen Stakes win and is undefeated on the 1000m trip. BEAUTIFUL GRANDDAUGHTER (9) fought well to score first place and competes well at The Valley and her soft ground doesn’t worry her. ZOUSTYLE (4) drove and tried hard in the McEwen Stakes and should still give them something to chase. COOLANGATTA (12) will be much better on his first try and it should be harder to resist.

RECOMMENDED BET: Rothfire to win.

MARKET MOVER SHEET: Rothfire $ 4.80 – $ 4.40.

RACE 8: GROUP 2 FILOTI (1600m)

Tough ending for punters in Stocks Stakes, but going with GLINT OF HOPE (8) is worth a one-way bet after she chased well when she’s not far when she picked up in Flemington. You will enjoy the 1600m journey. DEFIANT DIVA (6) comes forward in class for this after a good effort in Sandown last time, but he will run well. KISSONALLFOURCHEEKS (1) was well driven to win the Let’s Elope Stakes at Flemington and should be getting close again. FOXY FRIDA (2) ran well in first place and it is worth including him again.

RECOMMENDED BET: Shimmer of hope in every way.

MARKET MOVER SHEET: Foxy Frida $ 8 – $ 6.

Originally published as The Valley tips: Rothfire a good bet in Group 1 Moir Stakes